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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:56 pm

The Government sent those pamphlets around saying how much we'd all be out of pocket on an individual basis if we left, but the debate was mostly just rhetoric on both sides from what I remember.

Bank of England report today shows that No Deal would actually be more damaging than the 2008 crash was. That puts things into perspective nicely for those who reckon that exiting directly on to WTO terms in March would be a good idea.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Tommy » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:49 pm

Mantis wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:56 pm
The Government sent those pamphlets around saying how much we'd all be out of pocket on an individual basis if we left, but the debate was mostly just rhetoric on both sides from what I remember.

Bank of England report today shows that No Deal would actually be more damaging than the 2008 crash was. That puts things into perspective nicely for those who reckon that exiting directly on to WTO terms in March would be a good idea.
I haven't got time to read the report. What does it say on May's deal?

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:52 pm

I don't think the BoE did one for May's deal, this was a worst case scenario No Deal simulation to see how well the economy would hold up and the result shows an 8% drop in GDP during 2019. The economic forecast I saw for May's plan the other day estimated 3% less growth spread over a number of years I believe. There is basically no scenario where we are better off.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Jez » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:06 pm

In the short term who knows longer term, and frankly the economy is dragging along anyway events for which are largely out of our control in any case. That's my view on it anyway.
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:46 pm

The scale of the decline talked about by the BOE and some economists is a depression let alone a recession. I just don't see it but then again I may be wrong. After WWIII that did not happen after 911, after the Y2K bug that did not happen, after the Ebola pandemic that did not happen, you know I believe it when I see it
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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:49 pm

You're making such tenuous links there. 9/11, Y2K and Ebola aren't quite as likely to cause such widespread shocks and a recession as cutting ties with one of the largest trading blocks in the world that our economy has been built around for decades, are they. And WW2? The world is so different now, as is our nation's place in it, that making any sort of historical comparisons are utterly pointless. Post 1980s Britain is a completely different country to the industrial beast we were in the prosperous times following the Second World War.

"Believe it when we see it" is exactly that sort of dangerous cliff edge thinking that is going to come back round to bite us all in the end, because by then it'll be too late.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Jez » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:10 am

Project Fear is dead long live Project Hysteria!
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Thu Nov 29, 2018 8:47 am

The way the BoE estimates get spun and reported really bugs me. They are, by design, worst case scenarios and Carney and Co are very clear to emphasise that, whether in the report itself, while giving evidence to select committees, or when being interviewed. It's their job to plan for a range of eventualities and so of course they have to look at worst case. They also look at most likely and most optimistic, but if you're putting contingency plans in for a shock you don't assume it'll all be fine; you plan for the worst and hope you never have to implement it.

The same happened with the vote. Gidiot presented a range of possibilities, the worst of which was pretty severe and I do think they focused too much on it which backfired into the whole Project Fear debacle. The Remain campaign was a complete cluster fuck but their predictions and estimates were still far closer to reality than anything the Brexit lot proposed. (Remember all those trade deals we would have signed within two months?)

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:30 am

yeah that was dumb. At best a trade deal will take several years to iron out all the issues and the law get ratified by the courts and parliaments of said countries. On the other hand the whole world is coming to an end (which is the hyperbole I was referring to) has, for me, got old. I have lived through so many "end of the world" case scenarios since the 80s when my Dad was convinced the cold war would go hot that I am tired of it all.

I now don't (overly) worry about News any more. I save as much as I can in case the shit hits the fan but apart from that there is precious little I can do. We are all passengers on the Titanic. Either we hit an iceberg or we don't. Who knows.
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Tommy » Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:08 pm

Achtung Englander wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:30 am
yeah that was dumb. At best a trade deal will take several years to iron out all the issues and the law get ratified by the courts and parliaments of said countries. On the other hand the whole world is coming to an end (which is the hyperbole I was referring to) has, for me, got old. I have lived through so many "end of the world" case scenarios since the 80s when my Dad was convinced the cold war would go hot that I am tired of it all.

I now don't (overly) worry about News any more. I save as much as I can in case the shit hits the fan but apart from that there is precious little I can do. We are all passengers on the Titanic. Either we hit an iceberg or we don't. Who knows.
Worth pointing out that there's very little point saving in case of an 'end of the world' scenario. Doubt many places will be open.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:34 pm

:lol:
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Jez » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:08 pm

So the TV debate is a thing. For the edification of the masses who have no say in it afterward...

Or will they?

Can't help but feel this is all being engineered by Europe and Government to have a round 2 on the referendum and hope that project fear 2 has the effect of reversing the decision.
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:21 pm

I very much doubt that.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Tommy » Thu Nov 29, 2018 5:25 pm

Jez wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:08 pm
So the TV debate is a thing. For the edification of the masses who have no say in it afterward...

Or will they?

Can't help but feel this is all being engineered by Europe and Government to have a round 2 on the referendum and hope that project fear 2 has the effect of reversing the decision.
Project Fear 2 :lol:

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Jez » Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:58 pm

Mantis wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:21 pm
I very much doubt that.
Whys that?

1. Shitty deal from Europe with all manner of barriers
2. A government and establishment
that didn't want this brexit in the first place.
3. Project Fear 2
4. Shitty deal breaks down in parliament on all sides with lashings more Project Hysteria on top in the mean time.
5. The government, establishment et al "generously" decides that the people should decide
6. The people "vote" and perhaps it's reversed.

The effect:

1. Europe get a massive win and have yet again proven how shitty they are.
2. No country in Europe will EVER attempt this in 100 years after the ordeal and shame we will be put through.
3. The UK loses ALL credibility as a "returning" member of the all powerful EU to forever to pointed at as an example to others.
4. Further emboldening of the unelected in Brussels towards others all the while pointing at the example of the UK.

That's not a stretch is it?
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