The elephant in the room - Brexit

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:22 am

This must be exactly what Corbyn's team wanted, rather than force a no confidence vote that they would have probably lost, the Tories have finally torn themselves apart over it, and at one of the most crucial moments too. The Conservative party will not be viewed favourably by the public for this.

There's a very good chance of no brexit, or at least postponed brexit, if May doesn't survive today. Even with an ERG hard brexiter as PM there is absolutely no parliamentary majority for leaving with no deal, if the likes of JRM and Johnson try to force it through then they might face a no confidence vote from Labour that they could actually lose.

This is madness. We have 100 days or so before we are meant to leave, no agreed deal, sitting on the cliff edge of economic catastrophe and, by the end of today, may have no Prime Minister. I think she'll cling on by the skin of her teeth though.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:33 am

Image

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by DjchunKfunK » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:44 pm

I expect her to cling on as well but that could mean we are actually closer to a no-confidence vote in the government and an election. If the Brexit-rebels can't remove May through a leadership contest they may see bringing the government down as a way to get rid of her. If the government is brought down I don't think she would be able to carry on as leader, not after the debacle of the last election.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:18 pm

one thing is for sure - the news media are having the biggest boner in years
Games playing : Doom / Warlock Of Firetop Mountain

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:31 pm

In any other circumstance I'd love that May was possibly going, but who is going to take over if she does? Jacob Rees Mogg? Boris Johnson? There isn't a single Tory I'd rather have in that position. I was hoping that Corbyn might finally make a sodding move and initiate a vote of no confidence in the government, something the SNP say they would support. If May gets ousted by her own party then there's a good chance nothing will actually change.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:47 pm

I really doubt that he would have won a no confidence vote at this stage. Even though the DUP won't accept the backstop they would be loathe to vote with Corbyn too, and it's unlikely that any Tories would vote against the government in that scenario when May makes such a song and dance over the prospect of boogeyman Corbyn getting into number 10. If he lost that vote then it would only strengthen May further.

If she survives tonight then I suspect not much will happen until the end of January now. She's clearly hoping that she can force support for her deal by holding us over the cliff edge of no deal right up until the last moment.

If she reneges on the promise of having the vote before January 21st then that might be the opportune moment for a no confidence vote that the DUP will back. The EU have said today that the backstop is non negotiable, so withholding the chance to vote on it past the deadline will seriously incense the DUP.

At least the ERG have taken their shot and seemingly blown it now, so the chances of a no deal Brexit are increasingly slim. Assuming she survives today of course.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:29 pm

May has reportedly said that she won't lead the party into the next election. I wouldn't say this is really news to anyone, but she's clearly bargaining to remain in power.

I think Nicola Sturgeon has said it best;

"You know we've been reminded today what the entire UK has been plunged into because of a vicious civil war within the Tory party.
"It's a disgrace, it's selfish and self-indulgent, and the sooner the lot of them go the better."

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:20 pm

May has told the 22 she won’t fight the next election. Ministers crying in the room
Do you think they shed tears over Grenfell, or the fact that the UN considers our poverty levels and failing NHS a humanitarian crisis, or the widespread misery inflicted on disabled people over the last eight years?

I somehow doubt it.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Wed Dec 12, 2018 6:29 pm

I suspect they're not referring to the crying of tears.

Edit: No, actually they were, apparently another MP has said as much. Huh. Conservatives have a soul. Who knew.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:29 pm

I reckon May will hold on, and with quite a few votes as a buffer. But it does mean that her deal has to be put to parliament and there's no way she has the votes to pass it so it fails and Corbyn then initiates a no-confidence in the government vote, which he may well win as the DUP don't want May's deal.

I think the big problem with that is it leaves very little time between the vote on the Withdrawal Act and actual Brexit day; no one wants a general election campaign that spans that day - it would be fucking crazy. So Corbyn maybe doesn't get the vote, or loses it.

Either way, the next couple of months are a shit show.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:59 pm

While we wait on the result, amusing Tweet from Dominic Raab; that's the former Brexit Secretary who didn't know that Dover is a vital trading port.



Seems to think the graph is something worth boasting about when it quite adequately shows that wages have stagnated since the referendum, tanked when the Tories took power in 2010 and still aren't even back up to pre-crash 2008 levels yet despite the overall cost of living rising. Absolute muppet. :lol:

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:03 pm

And she won, 200 votes to 117. The Government limps on.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by eny » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:06 pm

So, unsurprisingly, she clings on.... What a fucking shit-kunt mess this all is.... JRM stirring half of it....Without any testicles to deliver a better solution, the fucker.
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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:11 pm

That's still 37% of her own party who don't think she's fit to be PM. Take out those on Government payroll who have a vested interest to have backed her and she is in big trouble.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:16 pm

eny wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:06 pm
JRM stirring half of it....Without any testicles to deliver a better solution, the fucker.
He thinks that not doing anything *is* a better solution.

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