The Elephant in the Room - Brexit

Exciting adventures IRL.
Tommy
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Tommy » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:21 pm

Mantis wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:15 pm
I thought he said 'people'. He's glancing across the front benches of the Tories as he says it too.

I don't actually care though, he would have been right either way. What should have been news was that he was asking her questions about her disastrous Brexit strategy and that the Tories responded with a panto performance. Or that a homeless guy who worked as a kitchen assistant in central London died outside parliament on the same day.
Basically my feelings.

User avatar
eny
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:34 am
Location: Autumn
Contact:

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by eny » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:40 pm

Absolutely..... Its disgusting really.
Everything on the internet is 100% true.

– Abraham Lincoln
˙ƃuıʇıɹʍ ʎuıʇ ʎllɐǝɹ uʍop ǝpısdn

User avatar
Achtung Englander
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Location: Wokingham

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:00 pm

Games playing : ENSLAVED™: Odyssey to the West / RIME / S.T.A.L.K.E.R Shadow of Chernobyl

User avatar
Wrathbone
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:08 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:56 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

I'm so jaded by the entire Brexit process that I'm not even sure I care who would win a general election right now. Or rather, I think the British public are insane enough to vote the Tories in yet again and I don't want to invest any hope in the alternative.

User avatar
Mantis
Landlord
Posts: 1205
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:39 pm
Location: The Grid

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:02 pm

I think we'd probably end up with a hung parliament if there was an election.

The thing is, he's mad if he thinks that Labour stand a chance of winning a majority within the next two months and that we even have the time to go through such a process. I'm not sure that we even have time for a second referendum at this point. It's all going to boil down to May's deal, no deal at all, the Government seeking an extension of Article 50 from the EU or MPs outright forcing through the cancellation of Article 50.

User avatar
Achtung Englander
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Location: Wokingham

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:46 pm

as we get closer and closer to Brexit, I am losing more and more interest in parliamentary politics. Now I know what the Roundheads and Cavaliers felt like in the civil war

guy 1 in an old english ale house called The Old Badger And His Wanger: "T's evil them Roundheads. Folks in Devon say a massacre occurred but me thinks t's a tall tale of bewitchment. What think you taffer ?"
guy 2 in an old english ale house called The Old Badger And His Wanger: "For fuck sake. Can we talk about something else"
Games playing : ENSLAVED™: Odyssey to the West / RIME / S.T.A.L.K.E.R Shadow of Chernobyl

User avatar
Strudel
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:05 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:55 pm

Mantis wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:02 pm
I think we'd probably end up with a hung parliament if there was an election.

The thing is, he's mad if he thinks that Labour stand a chance of winning a majority within the next two months and that we even have the time to go through such a process. I'm not sure that we even have time for a second referendum at this point. It's all going to boil down to May's deal, no deal at all, the Government seeking an extension of Article 50 from the EU or MPs outright forcing through the cancellation of Article 50.
We definitely don't have time for another referendum. As much as I think that would be my preferred option at this point, it requires primary legislation to determine that it will happen - let's be very generous and say that for the first time in history they can write that, debate it, pass it in both houses, and assent into law in three weeks (I think that is being super super generous - it's usually 20-30 weeks - but let's go with it). That would have to include the date the vote would be held as well.

The electoral commission then have a statutory requirement to test question wording and basically assess which format is least bias - that's a 12 week process usually but again let's say that given the circumstance they manage to pull it off in half that time; 6 weeks.

The vote needs to actually be set up, people allowed to register to vote, campaign window defined, each "side" defined for funding etc. That's usually a six month process; let's cut it in half again - another 12 weeks to the tally. (again, super generous given the issues with the first referendum regarding who would be the official Leave campaign).

Then you have the actual campaign - a minimum 10 week period, and that's not easily alterable through legislation, particularly as it would be easily challenged in the courts, and I think we all know that whatever a second referendum returned it would be challenged by the losing side.

So you're looking at 31 weeks at the most generous. For reference, the first one was about 55 weeks and the AV referendum was about 40, not including the actual drafting of the bills - that's from when the bills was first voted on to when the final vote happened, so ignores all the lead-up time of actually working out how to do it.

So yeah, the only way we're having another vote is with at least a year extension to the withdrawal period.

User avatar
Mantis
Landlord
Posts: 1205
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:39 pm
Location: The Grid

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:24 pm

Big vote tomorrow, it's make or break for May and I'd be very surprised if she managed to win. Speculation is more around whether the defeat will be by 100+ and nearly breaking Parliament records.

The glimmer of hope that enough people have realised the impractical stupidity of Brexit in its entirety haven't died yet.

User avatar
Achtung Englander
Posts: 554
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:37 pm
Location: Wokingham

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:45 pm

she will lose but more importantly what will Corbyn do. He has come out against a second vote because he wants Brexit because he always disliked Europe and globalisation.

The bigger question to that is what will DUP, Lib Dems and Tory rebels do ? Labour, with seats alone, cannot topple May

We live in interesting times....
Games playing : ENSLAVED™: Odyssey to the West / RIME / S.T.A.L.K.E.R Shadow of Chernobyl

User avatar
Wrathbone
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:08 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:11 pm

It’s funny that everyone seems to say Corbyn wants Brexit when in fact he voted Remain. He may have no great love for the EU, but the line that he’s pro-Brexit is yet another falsehood on the heap.

User avatar
Strudel
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:05 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:15 pm

Corbyn, despite saying for months if not years that he would see through Brexit, has dodged the question multiple times in the last few days. This gives me some glimmer of hope that Labour MPs have finally got through to him that if a general election is called and he doesn't back Remain, then all the "youth vote" he was so cheery about when we had the last general election (back at the end of the Second Age, when Sauron fought Elendil and Gilgalad - or so it feels) will abandon him completely, along with a significant tranche of Labour leaning voters.

Not that it makes much difference, as I'm in one or the safest Labour seats in the country, but I certainly wouldn't vote Labour if they continue to back Brexit in any form.

I don't think you have to be Nate Silver to see that between the two line ups of:

1: Tory-Brexit ; Labour-Brexit ; LibDem-Remain ; SNP-Remain
Or
2: Tory-Brexit ; Labour-Remain ; LibDem-Remain ; SNP-Remain

The first option has the worst political calculus for Labour.

User avatar
Strudel
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:05 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:20 pm

Wrathbone wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:11 pm
It’s funny that everyone seems to say Corbyn wants Brexit when in fact he voted Remain. He may have no great love for the EU, but the line that he’s pro-Brexit is yet another falsehood on the heap.
He has been pretty clear that he would "see Brexit thorough", apparently by getting a better deal, which is evidently bullshit. Though as I said above, that might be changeable.

I think he's actually anti-EU, rather than pro-Brexit in that he feels the EU has a lot of institutional problems (and he has a point) and he was less than enthusiastic during the referendum campaign, but it wasn't his fault that the Remain campaign kept trying to push him forward as a Remainer. They should have let him take a back seat and offer his opinion when asked which seems to me to be "on balance, better in than out, but depressed by the issues either way" which is fine, but doesn't sell campaigns.

User avatar
Snowy
Posts: 502
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:57 am
Location: Ballhang

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Snowy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:35 pm

I don't think Corbyn wants to be elected. I think he is quite happy stood on the sidelines throwing stones and has no desire whatsoever to get the hot seat, in case his Glastonbury appearances dried up. Quite aside from the fact that I genuinely think he is unelectable - if the Labour leadership stays as it is, I agree that the idiot masses would vote the lying self-serving Tory cunts back in just to avoid Corbyn as PM.

Labour needs a drastic shake-up - get rid of Corbyn and replace with someone like Keir Starmer, who has been pretty coherent of late in his Brexit talks (lets face it, everything else is secondary to this fucking fiasco). Also get shot of Dianne Abbott, simply because the public at large think she is a blithering idiot. Do that and they might stand a chance of kicking the fucking Tories out, although the government itself would be a poison chalice - another thing I think Corbyn is only too aware of.

EDIT: I keep reading that if these latest wranglings fail to get approved then we will be unable to leave the EU. I wonder how many of us as sitting hearing this thinking "Good, about fucking time"...
RCHD wrote:Snowy is my favourite. He's a metal God.
08/10/2003 - 17/08/2018
10501 :-({|=

User avatar
Mantis
Landlord
Posts: 1205
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:39 pm
Location: The Grid

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:03 pm

Corbyn won't come down from either side of the fence at the minute moreso because until we know exactly how badly the Government loses this vote and what their reaction to losing is then really there is very little point in Labour choosing a side and suddenly attracting anger from 15+ million people regardless of which side they pick; they're letting this farce tear the Tories to shreds and that's all they really can currently do. The argument that he won't come right out and back Remain because he actually wants Brexit is based on pure conjecture and totally ignores the wider political maneuvering it's taking for any of the main parties to survive this without enormous electoral damage.

I don't think we will have an election because I really doubt that a no confidence vote would go through, the Conservatives are too self-interested and would never dream of giving up power, particularly to a Corbyn-led Labour.
Snowy wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:35 pm
EDIT: I keep reading that if these latest wranglings fail to get approved then we will be unable to leave the EU. I wonder how many of us as sitting hearing this thinking "Good, about fucking time"...
Interesting isn't it how we've gone from "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal", to "Vote for my Bad Deal or we get No Deal" to most recently "Vote for my Deal or we might get no Brexit!"

She's an utter wet flannel of a politician.

User avatar
Strudel
Posts: 236
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:05 am

Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:06 pm

Edit: In response to Snowy:
Yeah, I think you're right that Corbyn just likes shouting from the sidelines. I do actually agree with a lot of what he says (certainly more than I do with almost any other UK politician) but he doesn't want to lead and I don't think he'd be very good as PM.

Keir Starmer has definitely risen in the public consciousness for his very shrewd and sensible Brexit work, and I'd argue that Yvette Cooper and Emily Thornberry seem to be two more strong Labour candidates (or at least, good for high ranking cabinet positions). I'm sure both have done things that I disagreed with in the past, but I honestly can't remember now and what I have seen of them both over the last year has been pretty solid.

I suppose it's not surprising given the Tories are in power, but I can name a lot more Tories I hate than other politicians I like.

How Chris Grayling still has any job at all is beyond me. What fucking muppets keep electing him? Is his only competition a convicted paedophile whose campaign posters have them sucking off a dog whilst being sodomised by a clown?

Post Reply