The Elephant in the Room - Brexit

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The Jackal
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by The Jackal » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:45 pm

Strudel wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:06 pm
I'd argue that Yvette Cooper and Emily Thornberry seem to be two more strong Labour candidates (or at least, good for high ranking cabinet positions).
Pity no one thought that when Cooper was in the running for Party leader when Corbyn was picked.

And Emily Thornberry can get fucked.
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Strudel
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:31 am

Why? Serious question; I'm curious to know as I had a feeling I disliked her for something, but looking at her record (and that Hansard like official record - Wikipedia) I can't see what it was that Thornberry did which annoyed me; certainly not the white van and flag incident.

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DjchunKfunK
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by DjchunKfunK » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:00 am

Funny how everyone is so sure Corbyn would make a terrible PM without even giving him a chance. Remember how everyone thought May would be a great Prime Minister? You are better off concentrating on what the parties stand for rather than the people leading them as this is what defines what they do not the person sitting at the top and as has been shown over and over it's often not possible to tell exactly how good that person will be before they get into the job. Of the past three Prime Ministers the majority feeling was that they would all do a good job before they took power and none of them have really been up to it.

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Strudel
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Strudel » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:51 am

DjchunKfunK wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:00 am
Remember how everyone thought May would be a great Prime Minister?
No, I don't know anyone who thought she'd be any good at all. Not after her stint as Home Secretary with the passport delays and "Immigrants Go Home" billboards. She was just less terrible than Leadsom, who is a straight out moron, Johnson who's a publicity whore, or Gove who fucked up education and stabbed Boris in the back. She was never a "good" choice.

I don't think it's a stretch to think Corbyn would be a bad leader for the country when he's been such a bad leader for the Labour party - he's not a bad guy, he just doesn't lead and there is no consistency because he seems to disagree with most of his colleagues. He's a great campaigner for the things he cares about, but cannot seem to understand the idea of collective responsibility.

Put him back on the backbenches where he can be more effective.

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Wrathbone
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:11 pm

It's hard to lead when most of the major players in your party are aiding the media in slandering you and perpetuating a toxic narrative about how you're not a good leader.

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Raid
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:24 pm

I honestly can't remember so much slander about the leader of the opposition as Corbyn has had to deal with, at least outside of an election period. Maybe I've just never paid that much attention before, but I don't recall Gordon Brown being accused of terrorist sympathising, and the worst they seemed to throw at Ed Milliband was the bacon sandwich photo and vague promises of his leadership being chaotic.

And no, I absolutely don't recall people saying May would be a good PM, in fact a lot of the conversation seemed to be around being terrified of her eroding civil liberties. I just think she was seen as preferable to the likes of Boris Johnson, and Leadsom was slandered to the point of not being credible.

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:55 pm

Apparently the Cabinet is split between MPs who want to guarantee avoiding No Deal if the vote is lost whilst opening up cross party talks with moderate Labour MPs and those who flatly refuse to work with Labour on a general consensus and think that No Deal should still be a valid choice.

Not building any kind of consensus at all and following strategies which she hasn't even shared with her own Cabinet half the time over the last two years is exactly why May is in this mess. This has always been about managing the divide within the Tory party as much as getting a good deal, and she's even managed to fail at that.

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DjchunKfunK
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by DjchunKfunK » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:05 pm

Strudel wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:51 am
DjchunKfunK wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:00 am
Remember how everyone thought May would be a great Prime Minister?
No, I don't know anyone who thought she'd be any good at all. Not after her stint as Home Secretary with the passport delays and "Immigrants Go Home" billboards. She was just less terrible than Leadsom, who is a straight out moron, Johnson who's a publicity whore, or Gove who fucked up education and stabbed Boris in the back. She was never a "good" choice.

I don't think it's a stretch to think Corbyn would be a bad leader for the country when he's been such a bad leader for the Labour party - he's not a bad guy, he just doesn't lead and there is no consistency because he seems to disagree with most of his colleagues. He's a great campaigner for the things he cares about, but cannot seem to understand the idea of collective responsibility.

Put him back on the backbenches where he can be more effective.
The general discourse around May taking power was that she would be a steady hand and ideal to steer Brexit through, the Home Office stuff was pretty much glossed over. You might have felt differently personally but that was the general feeling in the media and around the nation at the time.

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Snowy
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Snowy » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:22 pm

Did anyone outside of the Daily Mail fall for all that Strong & Stable wank? She has been a vile politician her whole career, just look at some of the most insidious legislation that came into being under the pig-fucker and she was behind most of it.

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:14 pm

I'm watching the debate live and have to say that every time a Conservative Brexit MP talks about a crisis of democracy and it being their duty to the British people to enact Leave no matter the cost I feel like throwing up.

Edit:

Though to be fair, Corbyn just royally fucked that speech up. I'm starting to think he (or at least his script writer) is a total liability. Hinging things so heavily on having a general election not only makes it look like he's more interested in opportunistic party politics but also plays right into May's hands because it will sway Conservative MPs into backing her deal specifically to avoid any possibility of ever giving Corbyn power. The time for calling for an election is after the deal is voted down in the Commons tonight, which wouldn't be likely to happen anyway because there wouldn't be a majority for a no confidence vote; not before the vote on the deal has even happened.

He rambles the same point and fluffs his words so often too, he just came across as bumbling and opportunistic there.

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:41 pm

202 to 432, the Government loses by 230! Got to say I didn't expect it to be quite that big.

Expect a no confidence vote triggered by Corbyn now, which they will almost certainly lose.

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Raid
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:00 pm

The biggest defeat of a sitting government in British history.
Mantis wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:41 pm
Expect a no confidence vote triggered by Corbyn now, which they will almost certainly lose.
He's not wasting any time. For a change.

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DjchunKfunK
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by DjchunKfunK » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:43 pm

Snowy wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:22 pm
Did anyone outside of the Daily Mail fall for all that Strong & Stable wank? She has been a vile politician her whole career, just look at some of the most insidious legislation that came into being under the pig-fucker and she was behind most of it.
The Guardian, BBC etc were all onboard with May as PM when she won the leadership election.

DUP have already said they will back the government in the No Confidence vote so don't expect an election any time soon.

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:34 pm

I think there might be enough support in the House to propose a full customs union with free movement of people, though obviously May will be completely against it; the question is exactly how much of her "we're going to take Parliament with us in these final negotiations" speech she actually meant. I doubt she's been humbled enough by this experience to actually let a cross party consensus form and the entire of Parliament decide on the terms of the next deal, least of all because it would enrage the hardline ERG members of her party and her entire strategy over the last two years has been to try and please them as much as possible.

The other most likely alternative is that no better deal can be agreed and we crash out in June after a short Article 50 extension; then, when the shit hits the fan and the country crashes and burns, May blames the rest of Parliament for not voting for her original deal. Unless of course some ardent Remainer grows a backbone and motions to revoke Article 50 at the last moment and the House, when finally confronted with standing at the very edge of the cliff, decides "Yeah, actually, let's not jump".

All today has done is prevent a guaranteed bad deal that'll make us poorer. We're still driving towards the cliff edge with people bickering over who's holding the wheel. A deadlocked Parliament with complete crash out is still pretty likely.

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Achtung Englander
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Achtung Englander » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:47 pm

I think Corbyn will lose the no confidence. To get his general election he has to win the no confidence twice. I cannot see any Tory MP voting against their own govt to bring it down to let in a potential socialist Labour govt. Now that May's deal is dead, the rebels kind of won that battle, so why would go ahead and vote aginst themselves to lose the war. The DUP will side with the Tories as they cannot abide Corbyn. The SNP will side with Corbyn on the assumption Brexit will be scuppered or if they get a promise of a 2nd Scottish vote.

I wonder what the Lib Dems will do. They will probably vote against the govt if they get a assurance from Corbyn if he gives them a second referendum, which is something he does not want to happen

Anyway Tory + DUP > Labour + SNP + Lib Dems + Plaid Cymru. So the math does not play out in Corbyn favour. He can only win with the support of Tory rebels and or the DUP

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and ... e-parties/

This is all very fascinating.

The bigger question is how much movement is there with the EU. If they have an either "you are in" or "you're out" policy, I really cannot see how shuffling the deckchairs in the House Of Commons will make any difference if the ship is heading towards an iceberg. The EU has a check list. If you want "half in" that means paying up and having free movement of labour which wholly contradicts the 2 reasons why people voted out.

This whole situation is beyond absurd.
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