The elephant in the room - Brexit

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Wrathbone
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:52 pm

:lol:

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Mantis
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:50 pm

A decent number of Tories are saying that they don't want this deal but are going to vote for it tonight to avoid no deal at all. They really are thick aren't they, completely allowing May to get away with this when everyone knew as soon as the first catastrophic defeat happened that she would just run the clock down until nobody had a choice to vote for her anymore without presenting any alternatives.

Switches to support coupled with a lot more Con abstentions tonight and I think she'll lose by a much smaller margin than before.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:23 pm

149 majority against her this time. Ouch.

May is giving a statement now and it sounds like her voice is totally gone. Fitting metaphor.

I think there might be enough support in the House to back a second referendum. Corbyn is hammering home the point about backing Labour's proposed custom union though.

The vote on whether to go out with No Deal is tomorrow and the Tories are making it a free vote for their party, the Government clearly doesn't want to pick a position on that one. Expect the majority against no deal tomorrow to be absolutely massive.

Angus MacNeil raising the possibility of an amendment that revokes Article 50 within the next 17 days. Not sure it would stand a chance if put to a vote but how ironic would it be if the SNP were the ones responsible for stopping economic disaster and maintaining the unity of the UK.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:43 pm

It's not exactly surprising, is it; she was destroyed in January and since then has seemingly been saying little more than "C'mooooon!" to other EU leaders. But it's not today's vote that was particularly worrying, it's tomorrow and thursday's votes to prevent leaving with No Deal and then delaying Article 50 respectively that are critical.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:57 pm

I think the votes will be to prevent no deal at all and for an extension of Article 50. The problem is that the EU might not be willing to give us an extension if they think we'll just spend another 3 to 6 months fannying around watching the Tory party tear itself apart with no consensus for another alternative. They have zero reason to have any faith at all in the UK Government at the moment, at best we can probably hope that they grant us an extension purely to give themselves a bit more time to make further No Deal preparations in anticipation of us crashing out in June instead.

The question is, if we vote against No Deal and either vote down extending Article 50 or the EU refuse, what then? The Government (Leadsom in particular currently) is refusing to commit to enshrining in legislation Parliament's commitment to avoiding No Deal if the vote goes that way tomorrow. I think they'd just let us crash out at the end of the month and totally ignore the motion in that scenario.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Raid » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:34 pm

Yeah, I can't see MPs voting for us to leave with No Deal, and an extension to article 50 is really the only option if that's the way the vote goes. I'd like to think that while EU leaders have absolutely no faith in our current government, they still don't want a No Deal situation either as they need to protect the citizens of the Republic of Ireland, the safety of which would likely be threatened by a sudden hard border with the North. Besides, a humiliating backtrack by the UK is probably in their best interests anyway, as it sends a pretty strong message of what would happen were another EU state decide to leave.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:47 pm

The EU can't offer much more to prevent the hard border than what they already did though, the backstop was the UK's suggestion and ironically has turned out to be May's downfall. The situation is not solvable without a full customs union and maintaining the free market; the EU and all Irish interests want to avoid a hard border between the Republic and N.Ireland, whilst the UK doesn't want a sea border with different customs between N.Ireland and the rest of the UK. There is literally no solution other than what we currently have.

I wonder if there are enough ERG members to tip things in May's favour. If they vote to rule No Deal out tomorrow and May puts her deal up for a third vote in a week or two's time then the ERG will back it when the only other alternative is delaying or cancelling Brexit.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by elgaucho » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:51 pm

The EU doesn't want to waste time talking about Brexit politics for another two years. I just don't see how they can agree to any extension without some fallback guarantee. i.e. pledge to revoke article 50 completely and remain in the EU after six months if no agreement is found, or open up to a referendum, something that can show people want May's deal.

The EU has NO incentive to give the UK anything here. The UK's expectations are unreasonable, given their negotiating power.

I remain at a loss at this whole fiasco.

I actually googled the other day - what good will come from brexit, or something to that effect. I can find plenty of reported impacts, but I can't find a damn thing that's overwhelmingly positive, good, or reasonable about brexit actually succeeding. Other than... well... the bloody conversation being over. Is there anything good about brexit? How will individuals benefit? I'm hearing border controls, tariffs on exports, even if the UK wants to keep import tariffs low to prevent consumer impacts. I'm hearing issues with EU regulations and export / imports. There's issues of health insurance cover for brits travelling in the EU as their cover will no longer be valid... i'm seeing the bill for Brexit, the impact on truckers late with deliveries, the relocation of businesses to EU jurisdictions, the loss of licences for UK firms in Europe (with some allowances provided by the EU - are these subject to deal brexit?)... the list goes on...

Who in their right minds wants this? And everyone who complained about immigration... well, they're not getting what they want either. It makes no sense. The entire premise is based on an idea without a definition.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:13 pm

Whatever the outcome of Brexit is, the most galling thing for me now is that Theresa May, David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and all the other politicians responsible for this mess - even Corbyn, as much as I defend him - will never be held accountable. May has said she plans to quit this summer, so much like Cameron she will have spent her term as PM shitting over the country and then leaving everyone else to clean it up while she swims through her heaps of gold like Scrooge McDuck. It would be some small consolation if she and the others ended up not simply with karmic justice, but actual justice. But they won't, and that hurts.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:18 pm

There's talk of them putting May's deal up for a third vote after the no deal policy papers are released tomorrow. ](*,)

At this point I feel like we should just string them all up outside Parliament.

If the ERG back her to avoid a delay or revocation of Article 50 then she may actually just about be able to swing a win for it, assuming the DUP also fall into line.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Drarok » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:24 pm

Wrathbone wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:13 pm
even Corbyn, as much as I defend him
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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:37 pm

Why lump him in with the others or why defend him?

I defend him because he’s faced a character assassination by the press that a majority of the public have been duped by.

I consider him at least partly responsible for this mess because ultimately he is the opposition leader and he’s failed to sell his party’s stance. Regardless of the factors surrounding that, he’s fighting a losing battle. Right now results are becoming more important than ideals.

Also he’s had all this time to lunge wildly across Parliament and headbutt May, and he hasn’t. That would win the public backing for a greater good.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Drarok » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:05 pm

Why would he offer any real opposition to May when he wants to leave the EU, though? He can sit idly by, throw a few snipes her way about how poor a job she's doing and how Labour would do this whole thing sooooo much better, but I bet he's happy the Tories are in power for this whole clusterfuck. He doesn't want to step in and stop anything, but he'll be happy to take power come the next election, probably campaigning on how shit of a job they've done.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Mantis » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:24 pm

Most of what you just said is true, but how exactly do you know that he wants to leave the EU? It's pure conjecture to say such things, absolutely unfounded. The truth of the matter is that if he moves Labour closer to a Remain position then he stands to massively damage the parties electoral standing with a lot of its heartland seats. He's been riding the coattails of his success among the liberal young lefties whilst trying to keep the Leavers on side for nearly three years now by essentially just staying on the fence over the matter, but he's dallied for so long that it's starting to make him look inept. I'm sure he still has plenty of personal misgivings about the EU but he did still campaign quite heavily for Remain during the referendum. If he does the right thing and brings the party out in full support of a second referendum with Remain as the desired outcome then you can pretty much guarantee that the Tories will win the next election, whenever they eventually decide to boot May and have one.

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Re: The elephant in the room - Brexit

Post by Wrathbone » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:45 am

Drarok wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:05 pm
Why would he offer any real opposition to May when he wants to leave the EU, though?
I reject the premise of the question, but consider that Farage has said in recent months that a second referendum would be better than leaving the EU with May’s deal.

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