Ukraine

[Animalmother]

Is this just a huge dick measuring contest or are we on the edge of something very horrible?

[Hatredsheart]

I think it's a case of neither side wanting to be seen to be backing down.
This is from 2015 but I found it a really interesting watch given the current situation

[Achtung Englander]

The only person who knows what will happen next is Putin and it seems he is playing a KGB trick of mental games.

I cannot see Russia coming out of this well. Attack and he will have a headache of occupying a nation that does not want to be occupied. Back down and he give Nato Eastern Europe the breathing space to arm themselves to the teeth.

Its a tad worrying that all this brinkmanship is done with someone who has enough arsenal to obliterate the whole of the West.

Its interesting that he waited for Trump to be out of office and try it no with Biden. Having read a book on the reason for the start of WWI I can see history repeating itself (historians believe it was Russian mobilisation in fear of a German attack that actually resulted with a German attack) but I cannot understand why now? Its not like we had a Franz Ferdinand event to point to.

I am not saying a nuclear war will happen, but my greatest fear is that we have zero room for error.

[Wrathbone]

There’s not going to be anything resembling a war, outside of Russia rolling over Ukraine in a few days (hours?). This is what it boils down to:

Should a further Russian incursion into Ukraine happen, the leaders agreed that "allies must enact swift retributive responses including an unprecedented package of sanctions".

Earlier on Monday, the Pentagon said some 8,500 combat-ready US troops are on high alert to deploy at short notice.

But they would only be deployed if the Nato military alliance decides to activate a rapid-reaction force, "or if other situations develop" around the Russian troop build-up, said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.

There are no plans to deploy to Ukraine itself, he added.

In other words, NATO will grumble loudly but won’t actually do any fighting, because we don’t have much strategic interest in Ukraine. Our biggest problem in the UK is that we get a load of gas from Russia, so if we impose sanctions then expect energy prices to rocket up even further.

The video above is very informative and contextualises a lot of this. We’ve put ourselves in a position where we can’t be seen to be doing nothing but we equally have little interest in actually defending Ukraine in any substantive way.

[Achtung Englander]

the hyporcacy is breathtaking. When Iraq invaded Kuwait - the US was all in. When Russia invades Ukraine "there is nothing we can do"

[Wrathbone]

Surely there's nobody outside the US who actually believes the US defends nations when it's not in their own interest?

[Raid]

Was the US not fairly open about the first gulf war happening to safeguard oil supplies? Besides, as massive as Iraq's army was at the time, they had no way of attacking the US on a large scale, unlike modern day Russia.

Not provoking a world war in defence of a country with low strategic value is probably the sensible thing to do, frankly. Nobody wants to see Russia invade, but there's only so much pressure you can apply without shooting at one another.

[Sly Boots]

It's ok, James Holden will save us

[Achtung Englander]

Surely there's nobody outside the US who actually believes the US defends nations when it's not in their own interest?

oh I know, its the blantant hypocracy of it all.

[Solitaire]

Was the US not fairly open about the first gulf war happening to safeguard oil supplies? Besides, as massive as Iraq's army was at the time, they had no way of attacking the US on a large scale, unlike modern day Russia.

Not provoking a world war in defence of a country with low strategic value is probably the sensible thing to do, frankly. Nobody wants to see Russia invade, but there's only so much pressure you can apply without shooting at one another.

Thanks for saying what I was about to. It's hardly a comparison, Iraq vs Russia. I'm no patriot, over here in the US, but we aren't feeling suicidal as a rule - WWIII against Russia would be apocalyptic.

Ukraine is an ally, and one that we're attempting to get into NATO. This is all quite complicated. To say that America "will do nothing" because Ukraine has no 'strategic value' is missing the point.

[Raid]

Ukraine is an ally, and one that we're attempting to get into NATO. This is all quite complicated. To say that America "will do nothing" because Ukraine has no 'strategic value' is missing the point.

Fair point, I'd missed the potential NATO member angle. To be honest I'm surprisingly clueless on this matter, given how much I try to just avoid the news these days as it's never anything but depressing.

[Wrathbone]

Ukraine is an ally, and one that we're attempting to get into NATO. This is all quite complicated. To say that America "will do nothing" because Ukraine has no 'strategic value' is missing the point.

I don't think it is missing the point. Obviously nobody wants a massive war between Russia and NATO, but can you honestly say NATO would take no military action if Russia was threatening to invade certain other non-NATO countries - say, Finland? What if they went for Ireland? Russia is making this move because they know they can get away with it. They know it, we know it, all of NATO knows it and sadly Ukraine knows it.

I'm not passing judgement on NATO's passive-aggressive stance as it's the only sensible choice here, but the lack of any compelling non-humanitarian reason for us to defend Ukraine absolutely IS the point.

[Maturin]

It's possible they'll end up annexing a chunk, like they did with Crimea. A chunk big enough to be a show of strength but small enough to prevent major retaliation.

Long term, NATO needs to obviously get its member nations to stop relying on Russian gas, but something tells me that won't happen. The radio silence coming from Germany about all this is genuinely unnerving.

Nether Russia or NATO want a wider war, therefore it won't happen. But at some point NATO need to get a step ahead and put pressure on Putin for once.

[eny]

Bit of a recap of how we got here:

https://t.co/5jiXmMhxvX

[Achtung Englander]

I find it incredulous that Putin needs to threaten Ukraine with annexiation based on his idea that the Russian and Ukranians are the same people. That was the same reasoning HItler had for Anschluss. If they are the "same people" than why do they want to join Nato or the EU or threaten them in the first place. Like every country borders are messy, just look at the Middle East, and the East Ukranians probably feel Russian, but the Western Ukranians don't. And Ukranian did not slip into civil war to "resolve" this issue.

This is a land grab by a guy who is natural instinct is paranoia.

As for Nato. It really should not have expanded East but its very telling that Eastern European govt wanted to join because they remember the shit that was the Soveit Union,